ECADF | October 30, 2019.
Washington, DC — Ethiopia is a strategic country in Africa; yet, what happens in Ethiopia can have a far-reaching effect beyond the continent.
An expert on East Africa stated:
A civil war, and possibly genocide, is in the making in the Horn of Africa, in Ethiopia…If civil war begins in Ethiopia it will be an unprecedented catastrophe the likes of which has not been seen in Africa…Because of the Nile River, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt, instability in Ethiopia will be a major concern and it is likely that these countries will intervene either directly or indirectly. Together with the failed states of South Sudan, Somalia, Central Africa Republic, Yemen across the Red Sea, and with Sudan and Eritrea tittering as a result of US sanctions, the Horn can turn out to be the most complicated security zone the world has yet to see. We pray for peace…
Ethiopia has been a country under authoritarian rule for 27 years, until 2018, when an uprising of the people led to the peaceful emergence of a new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. He had been part of the EPRDF, the same party in control; yet, early on he led the way to significant reforms—releasing political prisoners, making peace with neighboring countries, opening up political space, giving voice to the media and with it all, creating a sense of new hope among most Ethiopians. Only weeks ago he was awarded the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for establishing peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea and for other initiatives promising further democratic reforms.
Despite all of this, challenges to his leadership and “change” agenda, called Medemer, have arisen, now threatening the peace and security of the country. Some of this opposition comes from the old guard within the EPRDF, especially the previously dominant group, the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), who do not want democratic reforms.